Are We Headed For A Civil War?

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Donald Trump is the president-elect of the United States of America.

Because of the result of the 2016 Election, there have been many protests  across the country.  I’m not sure what they expect to happen.  The country has spoken and Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States.

However, we cannot ignore the fear of a Trump presidency.  He made several campaign promises that will be difficult, at best, to follow thru on.

One that resonates the loudest is the promise of bringing back manufacturing jobs back to America.  Trump made promises to states that were once strong in manufacturing such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania that those lost jobs will come back.  He made these statements but never really outlined on just how he was actually going to accomplish this.

And if, by some miracle he actually does this, the jobs won’t be as plentiful as they once were.  If the expectation is anything different, a lot of people are going to be out in the cold.

Technology will be a big factor.  Many of the jobs that were lost overseas weren’t necessarily replaced by other people, they were replaced by robots.  And if manufacturing does come back, most likely companies will continue to use robots for those jobs as well.  Robots cost less to operate than the salaries they replace and are only getting better and cheaper to run.  There are studies that show by 2025, less than 10 years from now, the cost of a welding robot will be roughly $2.00 per hour which is considerably less than the $25.00 per hour than a human welder earns today.

So, for instance, if a new auto manufacturing plant was built in Michigan, it won’t bring back the 28,000 jobs to the area that GM employed during the 1980’s.  At best, because of technology, a new plant would bring perhaps a third of jobs to the area, roughly 9,400 jobs.  And GM would continue to look at technology to use people even less.  It is conceivable that a plant that required 28,000 people to build trucks could only need 10% of that amount.

Just how is Donald Trump going to fulfil his promise?  And in 3 years, how will his supporters feel when the realization occurs that he didn’t put them back to work?

This is just one example of a promise made by Trump that he may not be able to fulfill.  No president can dictate to any company as to where they make their products.  He can only suggest legislation to make it attractive for companies to come back.

One of the big reasons Trump did win the election was due to working-class white people, mostly those without a college degree, deserted the Democratic party in drove.  Rural voters turned out in exceptionally high numbers wanted change in a big way as they felt overlooked by the establishment and left behind by the coastal elite.

None of the issues that popped up during his campaign such has insulting Vietnam veteran  Senator John McCain, mocking the weight of a Hispanic beauty pageant winner and boasting about making unwanted sexual advances toward women.  None of that mattered as Trump supporters felt these actions were more acceptable than the trust issues that arose with Hillary Clinton’s involvement with classified emails and Benghazi.

For the most part, supporters of Trump wanted to blow up the current system that seemed to be against white middle-class, non-degreed rural Americans.  And in some ways, these supporters aren’t off the mark.

This classification of people, for the most part, have been the majority of this country since it was founded in 1776.  And since the 1970’s, their place in this country has been chipped away little by little.

Donald Trump tapped into the fear and many bought into what he was saying.

And for those who didn’t vote for Trump?  The ones that are protesting in the streets, shouting “Not My President!”  Why is there such a vehement reaction to him winning the election?

Fear.

Fear of discrimination returning.  Fear of reprisal for being a minority.  Fear of setback in women’s rights.  Fear of going to war and not knowing why.  Fear of being deported.

Fear of not having medical insurance.  Fear of the rich getting richer and that the middle class, the one’s that voted Trump into office, will disappear.

Both Democrats and Republicans are afraid.  And people will continue to be prejudice against things they don’t understand.    This is fear on both sides is ripe for a civil war.

The real danger of this civil war is what Trump stands for.  He undermines the norms that sustain our liberal democracies.   His campaign raised racial and ethnic tensions and inflamed passions against imagined enemies:  Mexican immigrants, Chinese exporters and Muslim refugees.

Even more of a danger is his economic failure.  He will come into office as the leader of middle and lower class that feel they have been left behind.  Raising their expectations in ways he can’t possibly meet, there isn’t much of a chance their income will receive a large boost under his policies.

When his economic policies fail, and they will, it will cause a greater divide in this country even more than his election has.

Let us remember that acting against one another isn’t the answer.  We cannot allow whatever failures that may occur to cause this country to be ripped apart.  We must endure the next four years under Trump and ride through it the best that we can.

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